Asia Aniline Market Analysis 2026: Review of Aniline Export Prices and Analysis of the MDI–Aniline Value Chain

Comprehensive Review of Asia’s Aniline Market and Export Prices

January–February 2026 Market Assessment

The global aniline market entered a new phase of structural equilibrium at the beginning of 2026, marking a transition from the severe supply volatility of 2025 toward a period characterized by production discipline and downstream demand recovery. During January and February 2026, export prices of aniline in Asia, particularly in Northeast Asia, experienced a controlled upward trend driven primarily by benzene feedstock price movements, logistics costs linked to maritime disruptions, and the seasonal effects of the Chinese New Year holidays.

This report provides an in-depth examination of the Asia aniline market in early 2026 and analyzes how the intersection of geopolitical factors, newly added production capacities, and sustained demand for methylene diphenyl diisocyanate (MDI) has reshaped the pricing framework of the industry.

Pricing Structure in January 2026: Trends and Upward Drivers

In January 2026, aniline prices in the Northeast Asian market reached USD 1.2 per kilogram, representing a 5.3% increase compared with December 2025. Similar trends were observed globally, with European prices rising 12.2% to USD 1.56/kg, and North American prices increasing 4.2% to USD 1.23/kg. Data analysis indicates that Asia remained the most competitive sourcing region for aniline, largely due to lower feedstock costs and higher efficiency in integrated production complexes in China and South Korea.

The primary driver of the January price increase was steady and growing demand from regional MDI producers operating within the polyurethane sector. Rising orders for building insulation materials and automotive components intensified purchasing pressure on the aniline market. Relative stability in benzene feedstock costs helped prevent excessive price volatility, although benzene prices in Northeast Asia still increased 5.1% to USD 0.83/kg.

Value chain analysis confirms a strong correlation between production cost levels and final export pricing during this period.

Table 1 – Regional Aniline Price Comparison (January 2026)

*Estimated based on historical benzene–aniline spread trends.

February 2026 Market Analysis: Impact of the Chinese New Year on Trade Dynamics

February 2026 presented a different market structure. As the Chinese New Year approached (February 17), trading activity surged during the first half of the month and slowed considerably afterward. Export prices in China remained stable in early February at approximately RMB 8,745 per ton (around USD 1.2/kg), indicating a saturated pre-holiday market where buyers had already secured inventories for the holiday period.

Domestic Chinese markets showed minor regional variations:

• North China: ~RMB 8,700/ton
• East China: ~RMB 8,880/ton

These differences reflected production clustering and inland transportation costs to export ports. Overall, February witnessed a voluntary supply slowdown, as many plants reduced operating rates two to three weeks before the holiday.

Logistics and Supply Chain Effects During the Holiday Period

The 2026 Chinese New Year (“Year of the Fire Horse”), officially observed from February 17 to February 23, influenced supply chains beginning in late January. Ocean freight rates increased due to shipment acceleration ahead of the holiday. Continued Red Sea disruptions raised Asia–Europe shipping costs by approximately 25%, intensifying market volatility.

Typical industry operating rates of 78–86% in 2025 temporarily dropped below 70% in February 2026 because of planned shutdowns and labor shortages.

Feedstock Drivers: Benzene and Nitric Acid

Aniline production occurs via catalytic hydrogenation of nitrobenzene, itself produced through benzene nitration:

Therefore, aniline prices are highly sensitive to benzene and nitric acid price fluctuations. In January 2026, benzene prices in Northeast Asia rose 5.1% to USD 0.83/kg, while South Korea’s FOB benzene price reached USD 773/ton. Nitric acid prices increased 4.2% to USD 0.25/kg, driven by higher ammonia costs and periodic production shutdowns in China.

Table 2 – Feedstock Price Overview (Jan–Feb 2026)

Inventories at major East China ports declined by 2,500 tons to 49,500 tons, maintaining upward pressure on benzene and aniline prices.

Downstream Demand: Dominance of the MDI Market

More than 71% of global aniline output is consumed in MDI production, the core raw material for rigid and flexible polyurethane foams used in construction, automotive, and appliance sectors. In January 2026, MDI prices in Northeast Asia increased 4.9% to USD 2.14/kg, reflecting strong construction-sector demand, especially for energy-efficient insulation materials. China’s construction market is projected to grow at 8.6% CAGR (2022–2030), serving as a key driver of aniline demand.

Major MDI Demand Segments

1. Construction (39.3%) – Insulation materials for energy-efficiency compliance.
2. Automotive – Seats, dashboards, and acoustic insulation; China produced over 35 million vehicles in 2025.
3. Cold Chain Logistics – Rising demand for insulated storage facilities and refrigeration equipment.

Table 3 – Global Aniline Application Distribution (2026)

Capacity Expansion Outlook for 2026

A key factor supporting aniline prices in 2026 is the slowdown in new capacity additions compared with 2025, when 540,000 tons of new capacity entered the market. In 2026, only 25,000 tons (Ziguang Chemical project, Inner Mongolia) are scheduled in the early phase, while large units (Nanjing Chemical 300,000 t/y and Wanhua Fujian 360,000 t/y) are expected later in the year. This slower capacity growth during early 2026 enabled export price recovery.

China Supply–Demand Balance (2026)

China’s annual aniline production is projected at 4.2 million tons, while domestic plus export demand is estimated at 4 million tons, reducing surplus supply from 350,000 tons (2025) to 200,000 tons (2026).

Key Export Markets: India and Beyond

India, the world’s third-largest aniline consumer, remains the primary export destination for China and South Korea. In 2024, India consumed 170,000 tons, largely import-dependent. Rising infrastructure investment under India’s 2026 budget is expected to strengthen demand for aniline derivatives such as dyes and pigments.

Technological Innovation and Sustainability Trends

The industry is moving toward sustainable production, with bio-based (“green”) aniline emerging as a major commercial topic in 2026:

• Covestro pilot projects producing aniline from sugar feedstocks
• Industrial bio-based aniline production by Pili
• BASF optimization programs aimed at eliminating process bottlenecks and extending production cycles

These developments are especially relevant for exports to Europe, where stringent environmental standards pushed prices to USD 1.56/kg, the highest global level.

Maritime Logistics and Freight Volatility

Geopolitical tensions, especially in the Red Sea, significantly affected logistics costs. Transporting aniline requires specialized hazardous-material handling, making freight disruptions particularly influential on final export prices. Temporary port congestion in China before the holiday further tightened container availability.

Export Pricing by Grade and Contract Terms

Export transactions from China in February 2026 were largely concluded at USD 1,200–1,250/ton FOB. Pricing variations depend on production technology, with vapor-phase processes offering higher purity but higher energy costs.

Strategic Summary for Q1 2026

The January–February 2026 period confirmed that the ultra-low price environment of 2025 has ended. January’s 5.3% increase to USD 1.2/kg reflected stable MDI demand and rising feedstock costs, while February maintained stable spot prices near RMB 8,745/ton, signaling the formation of a new market price floor.

Key Strategic Considerations

• Feedstock Monitoring: Benzene price fluctuations remain the primary risk factor.
• India Market Focus: Long-term contracts with MDI and dye producers are recommended.
• Logistics Planning: Shipment scheduling after the holiday period should begin in late February to avoid port delays.

Table 4 – Key Market Indicators (Jan–Feb 2026)

Global aniline demand, valued at USD 11.6 billion in 2025, is projected to reach USD 12.3 billion in 2026, with Asia-Pacific maintaining a 44.2% market share and serving as the global pricing benchmark.

Export Price Stabilization (Jan–Feb 2026)

Final analysis indicates that Northeast Asian aniline prices rose 5.3% in January 2026 to approximately USD 1.2/kg, while early February price indicators at major Chinese ports stabilized between RMB 8,700–8,880/ton (~USD 1.22/kg), demonstrating convergence between domestic and export pricing levels.

Resolving the Cost–Demand Imbalance

Despite increases of 4–6% in feedstock costs (benzene and nitric acid), demand in some downstream sectors such as construction insulation and polyurethane foams weakened due to property-sector slowdowns. This dual pressure compressed producer margins while maintaining prices within a narrow trading band.

Final Logistics Assessment

Approaching the February 17 holiday intensified pre-shipment activity and short-term logistics disruptions. Consolidated analysis of export destinations such as India, along with South Korea’s trade balance review, supports a comprehensive outlook for price trends and demand expectations in the coming months.